tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8704510721594030664.post4008166651515739947..comments2024-02-29T03:53:19.090-08:00Comments on Dynamics of Programming: Real Implications of Automated CarsMarkCLewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14261945946844997477noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8704510721594030664.post-69817209391490933962012-03-12T10:53:20.727-07:002012-03-12T10:53:20.727-07:00I think that some people are working on the extens...I think that some people are working on the extension stuff for electric cars now. (http://www.gizmag.com/rinspeed-dockgo-concept/20773/) I agree that it is something that could go a lot further if cars were self-driving. Right now there isn't much point in making that smaller car because you have to pass certain crash safety requirements. That means you have to have a certain level of weight and crumple space, even if you were willing to go down to a single passenger.<br /><br />I agree on the cars looking completely different. They will be like little moving living rooms or offices. That is one of the things that most excites me. I hadn't thought about fitness equipment, but why not?<br /><br />The reduced opportunity cost of driving is going to have a lot of other impacts. You mention urban sprawl. How about killing the airlines? More jobs are moving to allow telecommuting too. That will impact that. If you don't have to drive into work but 1-2 times each week and you can be productive and comfortable in your car, it really changes opportunity costs and the way people view things. However, if energy prices go up, the cost of the energy to move you might become the most significant part.Mark Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11308517561967709446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8704510721594030664.post-15108245214534356952012-02-20T21:06:31.297-08:002012-02-20T21:06:31.297-08:00Nice post. I've been thinking about multi-ord...Nice post. I've been thinking about multi-order effects from self-driving cars for awhile, and I agree that the technology (and society's willingness to adopt it) will have substantial implications.<br /><br />One of the items you touch on (the idea of the person-less cargo mule) might enable radical changes to the very design of what consider vehicles. Most of the time I drive around in my sedan by my lonesome. But, I need the extra seats & trunk-space for those few occasions when I need to give people lifts or when I have goods to haul. However, during all of those single-person commutes, I'm paying the energy costs of lugging around all that spare capacity. What if vehicles in the future allowed for much smaller (even single person) pods that could be coupled up with other pods when required, and could be augmented by cargo mules to haul goods when required?<br /><br />I expect another major design shift in cars to be based on accommodating people's newfound freedom in their vehicles. I would expect to see car interiors become larger, more "open", and littered with all kinds of communication & comfort devices -- e.g. laptop workstations, coffee makers, microwaves. This is b/c people will now see their vehicles as effectively mobile offices; why not be fully productive while in the car (and, car's will probably also have fully reclining seats, similar to first-class airline seats to allow sleeping; maybe even fitness equipment).<br /><br />Finally, a major sociological implication will be (I suspect) a tilt away from urbanization. Self-driving vehicles mitigate the penalty for time spent in a car. Thus, people may be far more willing to commute several hours each way to/from work (since they can be wholly productive & connected during this time; and/or they could be sleeping). Additionally, the expanded adoption of self-driving cars will likely mean that average highway speeds will rise (b/c of reduced congestion from more efficient/effective interaction between vehicles & with the roads). So, the land area encompassing any given metropolitan area is likely to expand outward. I suspect this will have interesting implications for real-estate property prices as more people are willing to move outward; but I haven't fully thought through the multi-order effects of THAT specific factor yet.jjchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16547768645137605091noreply@blogger.com