Sunday, May 1, 2011

Real Implications of Automated Cars

In case anyone had forgotten, I really want a car that drives itself. I don't like to drive. I find it to be a waste of time. I liked buses in the Denver-Boulder area, but the system in SA, especially where I live, isn't up to the same level and my life here doesn't support that. Just the ability to read during commutes was great for me. I would get through a lot more of my intended readings if I could sit back and read during my morning and evening commutes.

The ability to do other things while the car drives is only a first-order effect though. It is using the car like we do now, but just more automated. Where things get interesting is when you look at the higher-order effects. The examples that come to my mind are uses of the car that occur without having a licensed driver present. It might take a while longer for these to take effect because people/society will have to truly trust the automated driving mechanism before it will be legal to have the cars really drive themselves without a person who is responsible for them being present. However, I think that point will be reached and that is when the full impact of this change will become apparent.

There are two main categories that jump out
  • No humans in the car at all.
  • Non-licensed drivers in the car.
The first thought I had related to the initial item was because I see automated cars as needing to have a high level of safety maintenance. Things like cleaning sensors and doing regular checks that they work will be required for legal reasons and for insurance. The work itself will be largely automated and it won't take long before people want to just send their car out to do it while they are at home or at work.

Ever had one of those late night cravings for some type of food that you don't have in the house? Maybe a fast-food pick-up. You don't really need to be there for that. You place the order online (possible on a phone or tablet) then send the car to pick it up. A little extra automation will be needed, but nothing too difficult.

Remember in the dotcom bubble there were companies that wanted to deliver groceries with online orders? It didn't scale well because of the cost of delivery. If people can simply send their car to pick it up that problem is solved.

This also leads to a new specialized product: mini-cars that don't carry humans, only other stuff. The vehicle that goes to get your combo meal doesn't need to be big enough to carry a human or have the nice seats. Same for all these other tasks. You can have a much smaller device that exists just to transport goods to end users.

The second bullet was normal cars driving without a licensed driver. Driving the kids to school in the morning? Why does a parent have to be there physically? I can see all types of bad social implications of this with parents sending their kids out all the time and never seeing them. Then again, how different is it to do that with your self-driving car versus their bike? Less exercise for the kid, but not less contact with the parent. In fact, with video call capabilities the parent could be interacting with the kid while they are being transported.

Of course, automation is going to alter all types of other things in the world in the coming years. This was just a few thoughts on some of the less obvious implications of cars that drive themselves.

2 comments:

  1. Nice post. I've been thinking about multi-order effects from self-driving cars for awhile, and I agree that the technology (and society's willingness to adopt it) will have substantial implications.

    One of the items you touch on (the idea of the person-less cargo mule) might enable radical changes to the very design of what consider vehicles. Most of the time I drive around in my sedan by my lonesome. But, I need the extra seats & trunk-space for those few occasions when I need to give people lifts or when I have goods to haul. However, during all of those single-person commutes, I'm paying the energy costs of lugging around all that spare capacity. What if vehicles in the future allowed for much smaller (even single person) pods that could be coupled up with other pods when required, and could be augmented by cargo mules to haul goods when required?

    I expect another major design shift in cars to be based on accommodating people's newfound freedom in their vehicles. I would expect to see car interiors become larger, more "open", and littered with all kinds of communication & comfort devices -- e.g. laptop workstations, coffee makers, microwaves. This is b/c people will now see their vehicles as effectively mobile offices; why not be fully productive while in the car (and, car's will probably also have fully reclining seats, similar to first-class airline seats to allow sleeping; maybe even fitness equipment).

    Finally, a major sociological implication will be (I suspect) a tilt away from urbanization. Self-driving vehicles mitigate the penalty for time spent in a car. Thus, people may be far more willing to commute several hours each way to/from work (since they can be wholly productive & connected during this time; and/or they could be sleeping). Additionally, the expanded adoption of self-driving cars will likely mean that average highway speeds will rise (b/c of reduced congestion from more efficient/effective interaction between vehicles & with the roads). So, the land area encompassing any given metropolitan area is likely to expand outward. I suspect this will have interesting implications for real-estate property prices as more people are willing to move outward; but I haven't fully thought through the multi-order effects of THAT specific factor yet.

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  2. I think that some people are working on the extension stuff for electric cars now. (http://www.gizmag.com/rinspeed-dockgo-concept/20773/) I agree that it is something that could go a lot further if cars were self-driving. Right now there isn't much point in making that smaller car because you have to pass certain crash safety requirements. That means you have to have a certain level of weight and crumple space, even if you were willing to go down to a single passenger.

    I agree on the cars looking completely different. They will be like little moving living rooms or offices. That is one of the things that most excites me. I hadn't thought about fitness equipment, but why not?

    The reduced opportunity cost of driving is going to have a lot of other impacts. You mention urban sprawl. How about killing the airlines? More jobs are moving to allow telecommuting too. That will impact that. If you don't have to drive into work but 1-2 times each week and you can be productive and comfortable in your car, it really changes opportunity costs and the way people view things. However, if energy prices go up, the cost of the energy to move you might become the most significant part.

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